Gartner trumpets a new dawn for IT
17.03.2003

The IT industry will recover strongly next year even if the rest of the economy remains in crisis, according to Gartner chief executive Michael Fleisher.

The analyst called on delegates at the Gartner Spring Symposium in Florence to ignore the doom-mongers and to start dreaming again about the profound potential of technology to "transform every aspect of our lives".

"Today, we find ourselves at a point of deep pessimism but I think we're getting lost in the emotions of the moment; succumbing to conventional wisdom and short-term thinking instead of using our experience and our knowledge to find a path forward," he said.

" The claims of the internet-era entrepreneurs and investors were overblown and they collapsed with such abruptness that we seem frightened to dream any more about where all this marvellous technology can take us."

This year will remain very tough, but Fleisher believes that we are entering a period when an upturn becomes virtually inevitable.

" Recoveries occur for one simple reason: demand exceeds supply," he said. Over-capacity has been worked out of the system after two years of rationalisation, cutbacks and consolidation while, at the same time, demand is growing in three areas:

Replacement
Upgrading will become an economic and technical necessity by the end of this year and the trend will grow strongly in 2004.
" At a certain point, it simply costs more to fix and maintain your existing systems than it does to buy new ones," stated Fleisher.

Pricing policies
Vendors have cut costs and improved performance to a point where they are offering "clear and dramatic benefits".
" For example, the overwhelming benefits of consolidating servers and moving to new server technology make it imprudent not to buy," he said.

New technologies and platforms
Web services, Linux and particularly wireless will grow very strongly over the next two years, with vendor deals making them highly attractive.

" With most companies getting high, near-term return on investment on wireless, and with key players almost giving it away, the end result is a sure market winner," explained Fleisher.

Increased demand and tighter supply will make the recovery unstoppable, according to the analyst.

" We believe these factors are so compelling that a tech recovery will not be dependent on global economic recovery," he said.
But the long-term trend should not diminish the difficulties faced this year.

Iraq, the threat of terrorism, and the fallout of the dotcom slump are fuelling pessimism, but Gartner believes that business just needs to hold its nerve.

"It's hard to imagine how our business and political affairs could be moving in a worse direction. So, yes, it does appear that the world is going to hell. But, yes, the tech recovery will come," concluded Fleisher.